FORecasting Solar Particle Events and Flares
TOOL

FORECAST

Probabilities of SEP occurence for given solar active regions
Issued at: Sat Oct 21 04:16:03 2017 UT
*The estimated probabilities include the probabilities of solar flare occurence as well.
NOAA AR Beff SEP_prob
XXXXXX -1.0 0.000
Place the cursor near the center of an active region to see the flare probabilities plot
calendar

NOWCAST

Probabilities of SEP occurence for the given solar flares
Based on flare alerts provided by Flare Mail/ROB webservice*
Issued at: Sat Oct 21 04:30:15 2017 UT
(Bubble radius is proportional to probability)



*Since there is no information available for Longitude, respective values are set equal to 0.0
Flare Peak
Day:Time
LON* Flare Flux SEP Probability NOAA AR

Probabilities of SEP occurence for the given solar flares
Based on flare alerts provided by Solar Demon/ROB webservice
Issued at: Sat Oct 21 04:30:13 2017 UT
(Bubble radius is proportional to probability)



Flare Peak
Day:Time
LON Flare Flux SEP Probability NOAA AR

Probabilities of SEP occurence for the given solar flares
Based on flare alerts provided by Solar Demon/ROB webpage
Issued at: Wed May 31 10:30:05 2017 UT
(Bubble radius is proportional to probability)



Flare Peak
Day:Time
LON Flare Flux SEP Probability NOAA AR

Probabilities of SEP occurence for the given solar flares
Based on near real-time data provided by CACtus
Issued at: Tue May 30 08:40:02 2017 UT
(Bubble radius is proportional to probability)



CME
Date
Velocity
(Km/s)
Width
(degrees)
SEP Probability

SEP CHARACTERISTICS

SEP Characteristics based on flare alerts provided by Flare Mail/ROB webservice*
Issued at: Sat Oct 21 04:30:15 2017 UT
(Median values provided for probabilities≥0.03, Bubble radius is proportional to probability)



*Since there is no information available for Longitude, respective values are set equal to 0.0
Peak
Time
(hrs)
Duration LON* Flare
Flux
NOAA AR
Flare Peak Day:Time NOAA AR LON Flare Flux SEP ProbabilityPeak_time[hrs] Duration[hrs] Fluence> 30 MeV Fluence> 60 MeV Fluence> 100 MeVFPIO_30_peak FPIO_60_peak FPIO_100_peak
A. Based on flare alerts provided by Flare Mail/ROB webservice
20171020-23:28:39 0E00M1.1 0.076 14 592.53e+051.14e+056.17e+041.82e+008.98e-016.42e-01
20170910-16:05:36 0E00X9.0 0.765 9 951.04e+072.55e+067.46e+051.96e+026.24e+012.16e+01
20170909-11:26:23 0E00M3.1 0.162 12 813.55e+051.39e+057.41e+043.66e+009.18e-015.81e-01
20170909-11:04:32 0E00M4.0 0.194 10 813.83e+051.32e+057.39e+043.25e+009.18e-015.48e-01
20170909-04:29:08 0E00M1.1 0.077 14 632.64e+051.19e+056.32e+041.91e+008.98e-016.42e-01
20170908-23:45:09 0E00M2.3 0.131 11 733.22e+051.39e+057.30e+042.50e+009.18e-016.06e-01
20170908-15:46:44 0E00M3.1 0.164 12 813.55e+051.39e+057.41e+043.66e+009.18e-015.81e-01
20170907-14:48:08 0E00M8.0 0.300 11 734.30e+051.32e+056.72e+043.99e+009.26e-015.48e-01
20170908-07:48:19 0E00M8.1 0.303 11 734.30e+051.32e+056.72e+043.99e+009.26e-015.48e-01
20170908-03:43:39 0E00M1.2 0.081 15 692.81e+051.23e+056.62e+041.91e+009.18e-016.42e-01
20170908-02:22:49 0E00M1.3 0.087 14 692.81e+051.23e+056.62e+041.91e+008.98e-016.17e-01
20170908-00:00:50 0E00M3.9 0.192 10 813.83e+051.32e+057.39e+043.25e+009.18e-015.48e-01
20170907-14:37:13 0E00X1.4 0.405 10 685.60e+051.64e+056.94e+049.25e+001.20e+006.19e-01
20170907-10:15:04 0E00M7.4 0.287 11 814.31e+051.39e+057.39e+043.99e+009.26e-015.37e-01
20170907-09:53:14 0E00M1.5 0.096 14 693.03e+051.38e+057.30e+041.91e+009.36e-016.65e-01
20170907-05:02:41 0E00M2.5 0.140 11 733.22e+051.30e+056.72e+042.50e+009.18e-016.06e-01
20170906-23:39:23 0E00M1.3 0.084 14 692.81e+051.23e+056.62e+041.91e+008.98e-016.17e-01
20170906-19:28:09 0E00M1.4 0.093 12 692.89e+051.29e+057.03e+041.91e+009.18e-016.42e-01
20170906-15:56:15 0E00M2.6 0.145 11 733.22e+051.30e+056.72e+042.50e+009.18e-016.06e-01
20170906-12:00:19 0E00X9.3 0.772 9 921.08e+072.63e+069.30e+052.04e+026.26e+012.31e+01
20170906-09:09:56 0E00X2.3 0.507 11 739.99e+052.25e+051.13e+052.09e+012.55e+007.22e-01
20170905-17:41:30 0E00M2.3 0.134 11 733.22e+051.39e+057.30e+042.50e+009.18e-016.06e-01
20170904-15:30:49 0E00M1.5 0.094 14 652.89e+051.29e+057.03e+041.91e+009.18e-016.42e-01
20170905-06:41:47 0E00M3.8 0.189 10 813.83e+051.32e+057.39e+043.25e+009.18e-015.48e-01
20170905-04:52:33 0E00M3.2 0.169 12 813.55e+051.39e+057.41e+043.66e+009.18e-015.81e-01
20170905-03:51:23 0E00M1.0 0.071 14 632.19e+051.14e+056.17e+041.66e+008.83e-016.17e-01
20170905-01:07:32 0E00M4.2 0.202 10 813.83e+051.32e+057.39e+043.25e+009.18e-015.48e-01
20170904-22:12:47 0E00M2.2 0.126 11 733.22e+051.39e+057.30e+042.50e+009.18e-016.06e-01
20170904-20:01:42 0E00M1.6 0.099 12 663.03e+051.38e+057.30e+041.91e+009.36e-016.65e-01
20170904-20:32:17 0E00M5.5 0.241 11 733.83e+051.32e+056.72e+043.99e+009.40e-015.37e-01
20170904-19:37:41 0E00M1.7 0.108 11 733.22e+051.44e+057.41e+042.02e+009.18e-016.59e-01
20170904-18:23:24 0E00M1.0 0.071 14 632.19e+051.14e+056.17e+041.66e+008.83e-016.17e-01
20170904-15:30:49 0E00M1.5 0.096 14 693.03e+051.38e+057.30e+041.91e+009.36e-016.65e-01
20170904-05:49:44 0E00M1.3 0.085 14 692.81e+051.23e+056.62e+041.91e+008.98e-016.17e-01
20170820-01:50:58 0E00M1.2 0.081 15 692.81e+051.23e+056.62e+041.91e+009.18e-016.42e-01
20170714-02:07:40 0E00M2.4 0.138 11 733.22e+051.30e+056.72e+042.50e+009.18e-016.06e-01
20170709-03:17:21 0E00M1.4 0.090 14 692.81e+051.23e+056.62e+041.91e+008.98e-016.17e-01
20170703-16:15:13 0E00M1.3 0.089 14 692.81e+051.23e+056.62e+041.91e+008.98e-016.17e-01
20170703-16:15:13 0E00M1.3 0.087 14 692.81e+051.23e+056.62e+041.91e+008.98e-016.17e-01
20170403-14:28:56 0E00M5.8 0.249 11 733.83e+051.32e+056.72e+043.25e+009.18e-015.31e-01
20170403-01:05:02 0E00M1.3 0.084 14 692.81e+051.23e+056.62e+041.91e+008.98e-016.17e-01
20170401-21:55:22 0E00M3.9 0.192 10 813.83e+051.32e+057.39e+043.25e+009.18e-015.48e-01
20170401-21:48:49 0E00M4.3 0.205 10 813.83e+051.32e+057.39e+043.25e+009.18e-015.48e-01
20170402-20:34:09 0E00M5.7 0.247 11 723.83e+051.29e+055.92e+043.99e+009.40e-015.37e-01
20170402-18:38:22 0E00M2.2 0.126 11 733.22e+051.39e+057.30e+042.50e+009.18e-016.06e-01
20170402-12:59:46 0E00M2.4 0.136 11 733.22e+051.39e+057.30e+042.50e+009.18e-016.06e-01
20170402-08:33:15 0E00M1.3 0.084 14 692.81e+051.23e+056.62e+041.91e+008.98e-016.17e-01
20170402-08:02:40 0E00M5.4 0.237 11 723.83e+051.29e+055.92e+043.99e+009.40e-015.48e-01
20170401-21:46:38 0E00M4.4 0.209 10 733.44e+051.29e+056.72e+042.91e+008.98e-015.37e-01
20161129-23:38:16 0E00M1.3 0.085 14 692.81e+051.23e+056.62e+041.91e+008.98e-016.17e-01
20161129-17:22:32 0E00M1.0 0.072 14 632.19e+051.14e+056.17e+041.66e+008.83e-016.17e-01
20160807-14:44:07 0E00M1.4 0.090 14 692.81e+051.23e+056.62e+041.91e+008.98e-016.17e-01
20160724-17:42:11 0E00M2.0 0.118 12 733.22e+051.44e+057.41e+042.02e+008.98e-016.06e-01
20160724-06:20:37 0E00M2.0 0.121 11 733.22e+051.39e+057.30e+042.50e+009.18e-016.06e-01
20160723-05:30:46 0E00M5.5 0.241 11 733.83e+051.32e+056.72e+043.99e+009.40e-015.37e-01
20160723-05:17:39 0E00M7.6 0.292 12 814.31e+051.39e+057.39e+043.99e+009.26e-015.37e-01
20160723-05:15:28 0E00M7.6 0.292 12 814.31e+051.39e+057.39e+043.99e+009.26e-015.37e-01
20160723-02:09:47 0E00M5.0 0.226 10 723.56e+051.29e+055.92e+043.25e+009.18e-015.37e-01
20160721-00:47:33 0E00M1.2 0.082 14 692.81e+051.23e+056.62e+041.91e+008.98e-016.17e-01

SEP Characteristics based on flare alerts provided by Solar Demon/ROB webservice
Issued at: Sat Oct 21 04:30:13 2017 UT
(Median values provided for probabilities≥0.03, Bubble radius is proportional to probability)


Peak
Time
(hrs)
Duration LON Flare
Flux
NOAA AR

Flare Peak Day:Time NOAA AR LON Flare Flux SEP ProbabilityPeak_time[hrs] Duration[hrs] Fluence> 30 MeV Fluence> 60 MeV Fluence> 100 MeVFPIO_30_peak FPIO_60_peak FPIO_100_peak
B. Based on flare alerts provided by Solar Demon/ROB webservice
20171020-23:37:24 0W00C8.2 0.060 15 672.40e+051.19e+056.45e+041.69e+009.30e-016.65e-01
20170910-16:31:49 0W00X2.6 0.533 13 759.94e+052.25e+051.13e+051.40e+012.51e+007.39e-01
20170910-03:14:28 0W00C4.1 0.034 16 672.40e+051.20e+056.62e+041.59e+008.39e-015.78e-01
20170909-23:57:52 0W00C8.3 0.060 15 672.40e+051.19e+056.45e+041.69e+009.30e-016.65e-01
20170909-11:08:54 0W74M1.7 0.106 12 901.97e+051.13e+056.47e+041.28e+006.45e-013.74e-01
20170909-04:48:48 0W74C5.7 0.044 10 721.79e+051.04e+055.65e+041.11e+006.38e-014.35e-01
20170908-23:58:15 0W70C8.6 0.062 10 751.74e+051.01e+055.54e+041.21e+006.42e-014.49e-01
20170908-16:02:01 0W65M1.4 0.091 11 891.74e+051.01e+055.76e+041.10e+006.17e-013.55e-01
20170908-08:27:38 0W61M4.0 0.194 10 762.34e+051.27e+056.77e+041.69e+007.44e-014.05e-01
20170908-05:52:32 0W57C4.1 0.034 8 621.63e+059.42e+045.49e+041.11e+006.42e-014.42e-01
20170908-03:43:39 0W55C5.0 0.039 9 621.63e+059.42e+045.49e+041.09e+006.36e-014.22e-01
20170908-00:11:45 0W54M3.0 0.160 8 811.97e+051.13e+056.34e+041.45e+006.42e-013.78e-01
20170907-18:33:09 0W51C4.0 0.033 8 541.52e+058.67e+045.06e+041.07e+006.20e-014.22e-01
20170907-14:39:24 0W48M4.8 0.220 12 701.70e+057.35e+044.12e+041.46e+006.32e-013.94e-01
20170907-10:19:27 0W46M1.9 0.117 13 561.22e+056.59e+043.57e+041.16e+006.21e-014.24e-01
20170907-05:02:41 0W43C5.0 0.039 9 511.33e+057.74e+044.35e+041.07e+006.36e-014.13e-01
20170906-17:34:33 0W39C4.8 0.038 9 511.37e+057.80e+044.39e+041.11e+006.40e-014.34e-01
20170906-16:09:22 0W40M1.3 0.085 9 501.18e+056.14e+043.53e+041.07e+006.01e-013.95e-01
20170906-12:57:07 0W38X1.5 0.413 13 703.79e+051.43e+056.31e+043.40e+008.37e-014.27e-01
20170906-12:04:42 0W34X4.1 0.627 10 711.26e+062.40e+051.37e+052.83e+015.67e+002.10e+00
20170906-09:14:18 0W33M4.1 0.197 12 611.24e+056.79e+043.93e+041.57e+006.52e-014.24e-01
20170905-17:43:41 0W23M2.2 0.129 11 481.21e+056.75e+043.58e+041.53e+006.39e-014.37e-01
20170905-13:34:39 0W20C4.4 0.036 10 591.65e+059.80e+045.55e+041.31e+006.94e-015.29e-01
20170905-03:20:48 0W16C4.0 0.032 9 562.04e+051.04e+055.88e+041.45e+007.97e-015.62e-01
20170905-01:07:32 0W14M3.4 0.176 11 672.66e+059.81e+045.24e+041.73e+008.81e-014.50e-01
20170905-00:43:31 0W15C6.7 0.051 10 541.67e+058.39e+044.60e+041.36e+006.94e-014.75e-01
20170904-18:23:24 0W11C5.6 0.044 10 561.81e+059.17e+045.16e+041.44e+007.76e-016.17e-01
20170904-15:33:01 0W09M1.5 0.098 10 612.85e+051.34e+056.83e+041.72e+008.89e-015.19e-01
20170904-12:31:42 0W08C4.6 0.037 13 592.17e+051.14e+056.32e+041.50e+008.04e-015.78e-01
20170904-06:09:24 0W04C8.0 0.058 16 632.17e+051.14e+056.32e+041.50e+009.11e-016.42e-01
20170902-15:46:54 0W00C8.1 0.059 15 672.40e+051.19e+056.45e+041.69e+009.30e-016.65e-01
20170820-19:41:23 0E82C7.5 0.056 14 682.30e+051.19e+056.50e+042.03e+009.15e-015.61e-01
20170820-01:59:42 0W00C5.9 0.046 16 742.57e+051.24e+057.05e+041.69e+008.79e-016.17e-01
20170819-22:01:35 0E05C5.1 0.040 17 742.56e+051.24e+057.05e+041.74e+008.79e-015.98e-01
20170715-19:42:24 0W60C5.4 0.043 10 691.79e+051.04e+055.65e+041.11e+006.38e-014.35e-01
20170714-02:36:04 0W33M2.1 0.124 9 521.21e+056.73e+043.62e+041.32e+006.44e-014.47e-01
20170713-20:11:35 0W68C4.3 0.035 7 621.63e+059.42e+045.49e+041.09e+006.36e-014.22e-01
20170709-12:25:40 0E31C3.9 0.032 14 642.30e+051.18e+056.45e+042.03e+009.16e-015.68e-01
20170709-03:39:12 0E36C6.8 0.051 15 662.19e+051.18e+056.45e+042.03e+009.48e-016.24e-01
20170602-17:59:08 0E63C5.1 0.040 13 682.33e+051.19e+056.50e+042.41e+009.15e-015.45e-01
20170430-01:07:32 0W00C4.0 0.033 16 672.40e+051.20e+056.62e+041.59e+008.39e-015.78e-01
20170415-01:44:01 0W04C6.2 0.048 15 632.26e+051.14e+056.32e+041.64e+008.79e-016.09e-01
20170403-13:25:35 0W74C5.9 0.045 11 721.79e+051.04e+055.65e+041.09e+006.38e-014.35e-01
20170403-05:35:55 0W72C3.8 0.032 8 541.52e+058.67e+045.06e+041.07e+006.20e-014.22e-01
20170403-01:07:13 0W69C7.7 0.057 10 731.79e+051.04e+055.65e+041.34e+006.42e-014.49e-01
20170402-20:38:31 0W67M4.0 0.196 11 812.34e+051.27e+057.09e+041.62e+007.08e-014.05e-01
20170402-18:42:44 0W65M1.3 0.085 12 841.71e+059.80e+045.59e+041.07e+006.17e-013.55e-01
20170402-13:04:08 0W61M2.1 0.126 10 811.85e+051.01e+055.98e+041.45e+006.58e-013.97e-01
20170402-08:07:02 0W60M5.7 0.246 10 682.34e+051.25e+056.77e+042.06e+008.11e-014.45e-01
20170401-21:59:44 0W53M3.2 0.168 8 812.19e+051.17e+056.30e+041.61e+006.44e-013.78e-01
20170327-18:21:04 0E61C5.1 0.040 13 682.33e+051.19e+056.50e+042.41e+009.15e-015.45e-01
20170222-13:26:00 0E49C4.6 0.037 13 682.33e+051.19e+056.50e+042.41e+009.15e-015.45e-01
20170112-16:28:07 0W00C4.7 0.038 17 712.40e+051.20e+056.62e+041.59e+008.39e-015.78e-01
20161210-17:20:24 0W00C5.1 0.041 18 742.56e+051.24e+057.05e+041.69e+008.79e-016.09e-01
20161129-23:38:16 0E51C6.9 0.052 14 712.33e+051.20e+056.62e+042.29e+009.42e-015.83e-01
20161129-17:22:32 0E55C6.7 0.051 14 712.33e+051.20e+056.62e+042.29e+009.42e-015.83e-01
20161126-05:25:00 0E00C4.2 0.034 15 672.40e+051.20e+056.62e+041.68e+008.53e-015.98e-01
20161017-00:45:47 0W00C4.6 0.037 17 712.40e+051.20e+056.62e+041.59e+008.39e-015.78e-01
20160724-18:08:24 0W00M1.3 0.088 14 692.81e+051.23e+056.62e+041.91e+008.98e-016.17e-01
20160724-14:10:17 0W00C5.2 0.041 18 742.56e+051.24e+057.05e+041.69e+008.79e-016.09e-01
20160724-06:35:54 0W00M1.4 0.091 14 692.81e+051.23e+056.62e+041.91e+008.98e-016.17e-01
20160723-05:24:12 0W74M6.0 0.254 10 733.27e+051.86e+058.98e+042.41e+008.11e-014.97e-01
20160723-02:20:42 0W72M7.1 0.280 9 712.97e+051.58e+057.63e+042.39e+008.11e-014.97e-01
20160722-06:56:21 0W61C6.1 0.047 12 721.71e+051.00e+055.54e+041.11e+006.42e-014.49e-01
20160721-22:47:01 0W54C3.8 0.031 8 541.52e+058.67e+045.06e+041.07e+006.20e-014.22e-01
20160721-13:01:34 0W49C6.9 0.052 10 551.49e+057.74e+044.35e+041.15e+006.40e-014.34e-01
20160721-11:21:04 0W48C4.6 0.037 9 531.48e+058.37e+044.70e+041.09e+006.40e-014.34e-01
20160721-01:50:54 0W42C8.6 0.062 8 521.20e+056.73e+043.62e+041.15e+006.35e-013.96e-01
20160721-00:51:56 0W42C7.8 0.057 9 531.37e+057.13e+043.85e+041.15e+006.35e-013.96e-01
20160720-22:21:12 0W41C4.3 0.035 9 531.52e+058.80e+045.13e+041.11e+006.42e-014.41e-01
20160720-03:25:14 0W29C4.4 0.036 10 541.37e+057.80e+044.39e+041.07e+006.42e-014.64e-01

SEP Characteristics based on flare alerts provided by Solar Demon/ROB webpage
Issued at: Wed May 31 10:30:05 2017 UT
(Median values provided for probabilities≥0.03, Bubble radius is proportional to probability)


Peak
Time
(hrs)
Duration LON Flare
Flux
NOAA AR

Flare Peak Day:Time NOAA AR LON Flare Flux SEP ProbabilityPeak_time[hrs] Duration[hrs] Fluence> 30 MeV Fluence> 60 MeV Fluence> 100 MeVFPIO_30_peak FPIO_60_peak FPIO_100_peak
C. Based on flare alerts provided by Solar Demon/ROB webpage
20170403-05:36:00 2644W73C4.0 0.033 8 541.52e+058.67e+045.06e+041.07e+006.20e-014.22e-01
20170403-01:09:00 2644W70C8.0 0.059 10 731.79e+051.04e+055.65e+041.34e+006.42e-014.49e-01
20170402-20:39:00 2644W67M4.0 0.195 10 852.78e+051.30e+057.15e+041.99e+007.81e-014.30e-01
20170402-19:00:00 2644W67M1.0 0.070 11 801.74e+051.01e+055.61e+041.12e+006.22e-014.36e-01
20170402-13:06:00 2644W62M2.0 0.120 11 761.78e+059.78e+045.76e+041.39e+006.56e-013.97e-01
20170402-08:06:00 2644W60M6.0 0.254 10 682.56e+051.29e+057.16e+042.08e+008.11e-014.45e-01
20170401-22:00:00 2644W53M3.0 0.160 8 811.97e+051.13e+056.34e+041.45e+006.42e-013.78e-01
20170327-18:21:00 -999E61C5.0 0.040 13 682.33e+051.19e+056.50e+042.41e+009.15e-015.45e-01

SEP Characteristics based on near real-time CME data provided by CACtus
Issued at: Tue May 30 08:40:02 2017 UT
(Median values provided for probabilities≥0.03, Bubble radius is proportional to probability)


CME
Date
Velocity
(Km/s)
Width
(degrees)
SEP
Probability

CACtus CME Date Velocity Width SEP ProbabilityFluence > 30 MeV Fluence > 60 MeV Fluence > 100 MeVFPIO_30_peak FPIO_60_peak FPIO_100_peak
C. Based on flare alerts provided by CACtus
2017/ 5/29 8:12 150.0 20.0 0.002 1.33e+05 7.95e+04 4.79e+04 1.17e+00 7.32e-01 5.70e-01
2017/ 5/29 5:00 244.0 6.0 0.003 1.50e+05 8.64e+04 5.06e+04 1.34e+00 7.96e-01 5.94e-01
2017/ 5/28 5:24 306.0 6.0 0.003 1.63e+05 9.13e+04 5.24e+04 1.47e+00 8.41e-01 6.10e-01
2017/ 5/28 3:12 178.0 14.0 0.002 1.38e+05 8.15e+04 4.86e+04 1.22e+00 7.51e-01 5.77e-01
2017/ 5/28 2:36 242.0 12.0 0.003 1.50e+05 8.63e+04 5.05e+04 1.34e+00 7.95e-01 5.94e-01

SEP FLUX TIME PROFILES




echo '